The Future of Folding Cartons to 2030

• Almost 57 million tonnes of cartonboard material were produced globally during 2024, reflecting an increase of more than 6% from the previous year
• The value of the market in 2024 is estimated at just under $60 billion, indicating a 9.5% growth in value over 2023.

During 2024, total actual consumption of folding carton packaging amounted to just over 50 million tonnes, worth an estimated $180 billion, and reflecting a volume growth of almost 5% over the 2023 tonnage.

The market is influenced by major economic shifts including GDP growth, household consumption expenditure, population trends, and urbanisation, among others. Technologically, the market is being influenced further, with sustainability undoubtedly being one of the main trends.

Folding cartons are a form of paperboard-based packaging that is folded and closed to keep products contained. It is made up of different grades of paper, and different flutes and has applications in both food and beverage and non-food applications 

Key Questions

• What role can folding cartons play in the changing sustainable packaging landscape?
• Where will the folding cartons market show largest growth over the next 5 years?
• How will the market be affected by incoming legislation?
• Which areas will struggle to adapt to the changing market landscape? 

Hear from the Author 

Stephen Harrod stated: “The market is concentrated, with the five biggest producers accounting for over a quarter of the total volume of production in 2024, and the top ten making up almost 40% of the total volume.”

Stephen Harrod spent 11 years building a market research company in South Africa, focused on the paper and packaging industry in that country, following which he spent six years in the paper industry with Mondi and JAC Labels before relocating to the UK. He has been authoring reports for Smithers since 2006, with a focus on global paper and packaging markets

This report is essential to

• Packaging raw material suppliers
• Packaging converters and manufacturers
• Retailers and brand owners

Executive summary

Introduction and methodology

• Introduction
• Objectives
• Scope
• Methodology
• Definitions
• Changes from previous editions

Market drivers and trends, 2020–30

• Introduction
• The global cartonboard industry
  • Production
  • Major producers
  • Trade
  • Apparent consumption
• The global folding carton industry
  • Conversion
  • Major converters
  • Trade
  • Actual consumption
• Key issues and trends facing the industry
  • Global economic influences
    • Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
    • Household consumption expenditure (HCE)
    • Population
    • Urbanisation
  • Demographic trends
    • Smaller households and family units
    • Smaller unit packaging
    • Internet and e-commerce
  • Retail trends
    • Market size
    • Future prospects
    • Leading players
    • Push for environmental sustainability in folding carton grades
    • Capacity changes in the world supply of folding carton materials
    • Growth in demand for luxury packaging and penetration of premium paperboard grades
    • Legislation and regulation
    • European regulations
    • US Regulations

Technology forecasts

• Introduction
• Summary
• Lightweighting of paperboard grades
• Emergence of ‘smart’ packaging
• Digital Product Passports (DPP)
• Penetration of digital printing
• Personalisation and customisation
• Anti-counterfeit and security packaging
• Evolution of functional and barrier coatings
• Sustainable packaging – market opportunities for folding cartons to 2030
• Introduction
• Sustainable packaging defined
• Selected opportunities for folding cartons
  • Food and beverage applications
  • Non-food applications

Folding cartons by cartonboard grade, 2020–30

• Introduction
• Virgin versus recycled material
• Consumption by print process
• Consumption by construction format
• Overview of trends in grade production
  • Solid bleached board/sulphate (SBB/S)
  • Solid unbleached board/sulphate (SUB/S)
  • Folding boxboard (FBB)
  • Coated recycled board (CRB)/white-lined chipboard (WLC)
  • Uncoated recycled board (URB)

Historical, current and forecast market sizes, 2020–30

• Introduction
• Global markets for cartonboard
  • Apparent consumption
• Global markets for folding cartons and microflute
  • Actual consumption
• End-use markets for folding cartons
  • Overview
  • Food
    • Fresh food
    • Frozen food
    • Chilled food
    • Dry foods
    • Baked products
    • Savoury snacks
    • Dairy products
    • Confectionery
    • Preserved foods
    • Baby food
    • Dry beverages
    • Foodservice
    • Other food
    • Pet food
  • Drinks
    • Soft drinks
    • Alcoholic drinks
  • Non-food
    • Healthcare
    • Personal care
    • Tobacco
    • Household care
    • Paper products
    • Hardware and electrical
    • Other non-foods

Geographic markets for folding cartons

• Introduction
• Global rankings
  • Volume
  • Value
  • Compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
  • Volume per capita
• North America
  • US
  • Canada
  • Mexico
• South and Central America
  • Brazil
  • Other South and Central America
• Western Europe
  • France
  • Germany
  • Italy
  • Spain
  • UK
  • Other Western Europe
• Eastern Europe
  • Poland
  • Russia
  • Other Eastern Europe
• Middle East
  • Turkiye
  • Other Middle East
• Africa
• Asia
  • China
  • India
  • Japan
  • Other Asia
• Australasia

Figures

• Global cartonboard production by region in 2024
• Global cartonboard conversion by region in 2024
• Anticipated growth in consumption volume for folding cartons by region, 2024–25 and 2025–30, annual % change
• Top ten end user sectors of folding carton packs 2024
• Anticipated growth in consumption volume for folding cartons by end use, 2024–25 and 2025–30, annual % change
• Household consumption expenditure, CAGR%, 1982–2022
• Global retail e-commerce sales growth, 2017–27, AGR%
• Global retail sales, 2021–27, $ trillion

Tables

• Technology impact table
• Exchange rates to the US dollar ($), 2020–24
• Global cartonboard production, 2020 to 2024, volume and value , by sector, region and country, ‘000 tonnes and  $ million
• Major producers of cartonboard, 2024, volume and value, global, in order by volume
• Global trade in cartonboard, exports, 2020 to 2024, volume and value, ‘000 tonnes and $ million
• Global trade in cartonboard, imports, 2020 to 2024, volume and value, ‘000 tonnes and  $ million
• Global apparent consumption of cartonboard, 2020–24, volume and value, by sector, region and country, ‘000 tonnes and $ million
• Global cartonboard conversion, 2020 to 2024, volume and value, by sector, region and country, ‘000 tonnes and $ million
• Major global converters of cartonboard, 2024, volume and value
• Major global converters of folding cartons only, 2024, volume and value
• Major global converters of microflute only, 2024, volume and value
• Global trade in folding cartons, exports, 2020 to 2024, volume and value, ‘000 tonnes and  $ million
• Global trade in folding cartons, imports, 2020 to 2024, volume and value, ‘000 tonnes and $ million
• Global actual consumption of folding carton, 2020 to 2024, volume and value, by sector, region and country, ‘000 tonnes and $ million
• Historic and forecast real growth in GDP, 2020–2030, %AGR
• Household consumption expenditure, major countries, CAGR/AGR%
• Global population, 2020 to 2030, millions
• Urbanisation, % of population, selected countries, 2000–2030
• Major players in grocery retailing, 2023
• Capacity changes, 2022 to 2024
• Capacity changes by board grade, 2022 to 2024 (‘000 tonnes)
• New paper machine installations, 2022 to 2024 (‘000 tonnes)
• Rebuilds, upgrades and grade switches, 2022 to 2024 (‘000 tonnes)
• Shutdowns, 2022 to 2024 (‘000 tonnes)
• Technology impact table
• Market share of virgin material, 2020 to 2030, % of total volume
• Historic and forecast actual consumption volume of folding cartons, 2020–30, by print process, ‘000 tonnes
• Historic and forecast actual consumption volume of folding cartons, 2020–30, by construction format, ‘000 tonnes
• Actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2024, according to construction format, by region and country (‘000 tonnes) and $ million
• Historic and forecast production volume and value of cartonboard, 2020–30, by grade, ‘000 tonnes and $ million
• Historic and forecast production volume and value of solid bleached board/sulphate (SBB/S), 2020–30, by sector, region and country, ‘000 tonnes and $ million
• Historic and forecast production volume and value of solid unbleached board/sulphate (SUB/S), 2020–30, by sector, region and country, ‘000 tonnes and $ million
• Historic and forecast production volume and value of folding boxboard (FBB), 2020–30, by sector, region, and country, ‘000 tonnes and $ million
• Historic and forecast production volume and value of coated recycled board (CRB)/white-lined chipboard (WLC), 2020–30, by sector, region and country, ‘000 tonnes and $ million
• Historic and forecast production volume and value of uncoated recycled board (URB), 2020–30, by sector, region and country, ‘000 tonnes and $ million
• Historic and forecast apparent consumption volume and value of cartonboard packaging, 2020–30, by sector, region and country, ‘000 tonnes and $ million
• Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value  of folding cartons, 2020–30, by sector, region and country, ‘000 tonnes and $ million

For each end-use sector:

• Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020–30, ‘000 tonnes and $ million
• Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025–30

List of end-use sectors:

• Food
• Fresh food
• Frozen food
• Chilled food
• Dry food
• Baked foods
• Savoury snacks
• Dair products
• Confectionery
• Preserved foods
• Baby food
• Dry beverages 
• Foodservice
• Other food
• Pet food
• Drinks
• Soft drinks
• Beer and cider
• Wine
• Spirits and other alcohol
• Non-food
• Healthcare
• Personal care
• Tobacco
• Household care
• Paper products
• Hardware and electrical 
• Other non-foods
  • Global ranking of countries by volume and value of cartonboard packaging consumption, 2024
  • Global ranking of countries by compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of cartonboard packaging volume consumption, CAGR % 2025–30
  • Global ranking of countries by volume per capita of cartonboard packaging consumption, 2024, kg/person
  • North America: Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
  • North America: Estimated major converter market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
  • North America: Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020–30, ‘000 tonnes and $ million, by end-use sector
  • North America: Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025–30, by end-use sector

For each country:

• Key facts
• Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
• Estimated major converter market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
• Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020–30, ‘000 tonnes and $ million (and local currency), by end-use sector
• Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025–30, by end-use sector

List of countries:

• US
• Canada
• Mexico
• South and Central America: Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
• South and Central America: Estimated major converter market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
• South and Central America: Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020–30, ‘000 tonnes and $ million, by end-use sector
• South and Central America: Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025–30, by end-use sector

For each country:

• Key facts
• Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
• Estimated major converter market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
• Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020–30, ‘000 tonnes and $ million (and local currency), by end-use sector
• Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025–30, by end-use sector

List of countries:

• Brazil
• Other South and Central America
• Western Europe: Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
• Western Europe: Estimated major converter market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
• Western Europe: Historic and forecast actual consumption volume  and value of folding cartons, 2020–30, ‘000 tonnes and $ million, by end-use sector

For each country:

• Key facts
• Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
• Estimated major converter market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
• Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020–30, ‘000 tonnes and $ million (and local currency), by end-use sector
• Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025–30, by end-use sector

List of countries:

• France
• Germany
• Italy
• Spain
• UK
• Other Western Europe
• Eastern Europe: Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
• Eastern Europe: Estimated major converter market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
• Eastern Europe: Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020–30, ‘000 tonnes and $ million, by end-use sector
• Eastern Europe: Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025–30, by end-use sector

For each country:

• Key facts
• Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
• Estimated major converter market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
• Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020–30, ‘000 tonnes and $ million (and local currency), by end-use sector
• Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025–30, by end-use sector

List of countries:

• Poland
• Russia
• Other Eastern Europe
• Middle East: Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
• Middle East: Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020–30, ‘000 tonnes and $ million, by end-use sector
• Middle East: Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025–30, by end-use sector

For each country:

• Key facts
• Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
• Estimated major converter market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
• Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020–30, ‘000 tonnes and $ million (and local currency), by end-use sector
• Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025–30, by end-use sector

List of countries:

• Turkiye
• Other Middle East
• Africa: Key facts
• Africa: Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
• Africa: Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020–30, ‘000 tonnes and $ million, by end-use sector
• Africa: Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025–30, by end-use sector
• Asia: Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
• Asia: Estimated major converter market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
• Asia: Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020–30, ‘000 tonnes and $ million, by end-use sector
• Asia: Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025–30, by end-use sector

For each country:

• Key facts
• Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
• Estimated major converter market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
• Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020–30, ‘000 tonnes and $ million (and local currency), by end-use sector
• Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025–30, by end-use sector

List of countries:

• China
• India
• Japan
• Other Asia
• Australasia: Key facts
• Australasia: Estimated major board mill market shares, 2024 (’000 tonnes/$ million)
• Australasia: Historic and forecast actual consumption volume and value of folding cartons, 2020–30, ‘000 tonnes and $ million, by end-use sector
• Australasia: Incremental demand for folding cartons, 2025–30, by end-use sector