The plastic and paper material value chains are structured differently, leading to differences in how relevant influences in each industry will impact material use through the 2025-2030 period. Eighteen potential drivers that will impact the future use of plastic or paper have been identified, and the current situation has been outlined; along with a forecast of how these drivers will impact the material landscape in 2030.
This report investigates the differences between plastic and paper and the pressures on both. It examines priorities that are being addressed to enable continued use of plastics for packaging applications - in particular aspects like recyclability, use of recycled plastic, and weight optimisation. Simultaneously it analyses the opportunities for using fibre-based solutions as an alternative approach.
This report is essential to
- Packaging raw material suppliers
- Packaging converters and manufacturers
- Retailers and brand owners
Key Questions
- Where are the key priority areas for improving the sustainability profile and ensuring technical suitability of plastics and paper?
- How will differences in plastic and paper value chains affect material selection, cost, and use in packaging through to 2030?
- What new regulations and legislation will be influential or detrimental to the paper and plastic packaging sectors?
- Which market sectors favour plastic over paper, and what technical innovations are best positioned to alter this?
Executive summary
Introduction and methodology
Scope
Objectives
Methodology
- List of top 21 product sectors assessed
- Glossary of terms
- Material abbreviations
Key drivers and trends to 2030
Conclusion
Overview
Value chain for paper and plastic packaging
Key drivers and trends, current and forecast
- General sustainability pressures
- Consumer awareness
- Regulation and legislation
- Recyclability and design for recycling
- Inclusion of recycled content
- Biodegradable or compostable materials
- Material sourcing
- Lifestyle influences and convenience
- Food waste
- Global supply chains
- E-Commerce
- Brand reputation
- Retail environment and expectations
- Claims
- Waste management infrastructure
- Brand innovation
- Economic considerations
- Key material moves by market sector
Technological forecast to 2030
Conclusion
Future use of plastic
- Recyclability
- Barrier
- Use of recycled plastic
- Alternative feedstocks
- Biodegradable or compostable alternatives
- Weight optimisation and plastic use reduction
Future use of paper
- Barrier development
- Recyclability
- Biodegradability or compostability
- Alternative feedstocks
- Moulded pulp developments
- Forecast to 2030
End-use sectors: market forecasts
Conclusion
Overview
For each end-use sector
- Overview of current packaging formats & materials
- Technology developments
- Paper
- Plastic
- Forecast to 2030
List of end-use sectors:
- Laundry capsules/pods
- Confectionery
- Snacks & crisps
- Dry foods
- Wine and spirits
- Coffee and hot drinks for preparation at home
- Cosmetics
- Personal care
- Homecare
- Laundry liquids
- Fast food
- Ready meals
- Frozen food
- Ice cream and frozen desserts
- Fresh produce (fruit, vegetables, meat and fish)
- Condiments
- Pet foods
- Multipacks for home paper products
- Out-of-home hot beverages
- On-the-go foods (sandwiches, salads etc)
- Dairy-based products
Growth of pack formats across sectors
- Overview of forecast growth of packaging formats across sectors
Geographic market differences and forecast to 2030
Conclusion
Overview
Plastic waste management
- Regulation differences
- Technology development differences
- Recycled plastic differences
- Compostable plastics differences
The paper market
- Paper waste management overview
- Paper supply differences
- New materials development
- Other geographic differences
- Forecast to 2030
Pack formats per region
- Forecast growth of pack formats to 2030, by region
FIGURES
Growth of packaging consumption globally to 2050
Paper packaging value chain
Plastic packaging value chain
FMCG commitments and status in 2023 (top 10)
FMCG commitments and status in 2023 (others)
Key factors in global consumer purchase decisions
Consumer perception on sustainability of various packaging materials
Overview of EPR adoption across markets
Recycling differences across markets
Material types: recycling levels differences
Material types: differences in mode of waste disposed
Ariel carton board Liquid capsules pack
Persil carton board Liquid capsules pack
Recyclable PE pouch from Costco
Paper-based Kind Bar
Quality Street paper-based pouch and tub
Paper-based packs Mars Brands
Paper-based Yes! Bars
Paper-based KitKat wrappers
Paper-based Smarties packs
Paper-based Cox & Co pack
Paper-based Walkers Chocolate wrapper
Paper-based Holland & Barrett wrapper
Paper-based Moonvalley wrapper
Paper-based Cadbury’s outer pack
KitKat wrapper with recycled plastic
Proper Bars with recycled plastic
Cadbury’s wrapper with recycled plastic
Kind Bars with recycled plastic
Compostable Skittles bag
Paper-based outer packaging for Walkers Crisps
Paper-based outer packaging for Snack A Jacks
Paper-based pack British Snack Co.
Paper-based pack Awfully Posh Peanuts
Tesco recycling scheme for Crisp Packets
PepsiCo Snacks bag with recycled plastic
Burts Crisps Bag with recycled plastic
PepsiCo compostable film bag
Illustrations of paper-based packs in pasta & rice sector
Unilever dry foods paper pouches
Paper-based bouillon wrappers
Marigold EnviroCan
Paper-based snack pots
Paper-based nutrition and wellness packs
Knorr recyclable plastic pouch
Maggi noodles with recycled plastic
Pulpex-Diageo paper bottle
Pulpac-Diageo paper bottle
Paboco-Pernod Ricard paper bottle
Pernod Ricard paper-based bottle and Blue Ocean Closures fibre-based cap
Examples of Frugalpac paper bottles
100% rPET wine bottle from Aldi and Packamama
Nesquik paper pouch
Nespresso paper capsule
Nescafe paper refill pouch
JDE Peets paper refill pouches
Examples of ground coffee in paper bags
Recyclable pouch with recycled content from Origin Coffee
E-furnace development from Ardagh
80% recycled aluminium content from Nespresso
Example of paper-based cosmetics packs from Stock Suppliers
L’Oreal paper-based tubes
WoW Skin Science paper tube
Aveda paper sample pack
Rigid pulp container developments by L’Oreal and Estée Lauder
Boots cosmetics collection point
M&S cosmetics collection point
Biotherm Cap with recycled plastic
Ren Packaging with recycled plastic
Shiseido compostable cap
Les Eaux de Chanel compostable cap
English Soap Company paper soap wrapper
Dove soap carton paper multipack overwrap
Example of solid shampoo bar
Example of paper-based deodorant stick
Pulpex-Evolve Organic Beauty paper refill pack
Examples of recyclable pumps
Colgate recyclable tube
Dove body wash with recycled plastic
Caudalie Recyclable deodorant stick
P&G Deodorant pack with recycled plastic
Example of refillable deodorant stick design
Finish Dishwash tablets paper pouch
Esselt Dishwash tablets paper pouch
Fairy washing-up liquid in liquid carton refill pack
Smol Liquid carton refill pack
Example of Recyclable Trigger and Pouche
Examples of packs with recycled plastic
Examples of laundry liquids in liquid cartons
Paboco-P&G paper bottle
SUPA paper bottle
Examples of laundry liquid packs with recycled plastic
Examples of paper-based fast food containers
Example of peelable liner
Example of coated paper tray
Amcor recyclable tray supplied to Configeo
Example of paper-based bags for Frozen Products
Compostable bag for frozen food from CJ Materials and Pregis
Example of paper-based ice cream Flowwrap
Examples of paper wrap for ice cream filled cones
Paper tub for ice cream
Examples of ice cream tubs with recycled plastic
Example of paper containers for fresh fruit and vegetables
Examples of paper-based meat and fish packaging
Proampac’s recyclable PP meat tray
Use of recycled plastic in meat tray from Xact and Termoformas
Use of 100% rPET in Meat Tray from Tesco, Hilton Foods and Klockner Pentaplast
Use of recycled polyamide in meat tray
Pulpex-Kraft Heinz paper bottle image
Masterfoods paper pack
Recyclable dosing cap from Heinz
Example of condiment bottles with recycled plastic
Compostable mayonnaise sachet from Hellmann’s
Example of paper-based pet food packs
Example of use of Sonoco’s Greencan
Example of pet food recyclable pouches
Sheba Pouch with recycled plastic
Example of paper multipacks for home paper products
Starbucks-Qwarzo compostable cup
Starbucks Paper Lid
M&S Paper Lid
Paper insulation example from Costa Coffee
NextGen Consortium Starbucks reuse trial
Example of compostable cup
Example of paper-based sandwich packaging
Example of paper-based salad bowl and lid
Example of paper-based yoghurt pot
Paper margarine tub from Flora
Example of paper-based recyclable butter wraps
Yoplait Pots with recycled plastic
Danone yoghurt pot with recycled plastic
Compostable butter wrap from Novolex
Comparison in Europe of material recycling levels
Comparison in Europe of material disposal routes
Comparison in India of material recycling levels
Comparison in India of material disposal routes
Comparison in Europe of material recycling levels
Comparison in Europe of material disposal routes
Comparison in India of material recycling levels
Comparison in India of material disposal routes
TABLES
Overview of key drivers and trends and impact in 2025 vs 2030
Overview of key market sectors and plastic vs paper trends
Global growth of consumer packaging by format to 2030 (‘000 tonnes)
Summary of key drivers in 2025
Summary of top opportunities and concerns in use of plastic vs paper
Relative impact by 2030 of general sustainability pressures
Relative impact by 2030 of consumer awareness
Relative impact by 2030 of regulation and legislation
Relative impact by 2030 of recyclability and design for recycling
Relative impact by 2030 of inclusion of recycled content
Food grade pcr packaging consumption by region, 2019–29 (‘000 tonnes)
Relative impact by 2030 of biodegradable or compostable materials
Relative impact by 2030 of material sourcing
Relative impact by 2030 of lifestyle influences and convenience
Relative impact by 2030 of food waste
Relative impact by 2030 of global supply chains
Relative impact by 2030 of e-commerce
Relative impact by 2030 of brand reputation
Relative impact by 2030 of retail environment and expectations
Relative impact by 2030 of claims
Relative impact by 2030 of waste management infrastructure
Relative impact by 2030 of brand innovation
Relative impact by 2030 of economic considerations
Overview of key material moves across various market sectors
Overview of key technology development areas for improved sustainability profile
Overview of global barrier coating consumption and 2030 projection (‘000 tonnes)
Overview of key barrier technologies for paper
Shifts currently seen for laundry capsules/pods
Shifts currently seen for confectionery
Shifts currently seen for snacks & crisps
Shifts currently seen for dry foods
Shifts currently seen for wine & spirits
Shifts currently seen for coffee and hot drinks for preparation at home
Shifts currently seen for cosmetics
Shifts currently seen for personal care
Shifts currently seen for homecare
Shifts currently seen for laundry liquids
Shifts currently seen for fast food
Shifts currently seen for ready meals
Shifts currently seen for frozen food
Shifts currently seen for ice cream and frozen desserts
Shifts currently seen for fresh produce (fruit, vegetables, meat, fish)
Shifts currently seen for condiments
Shifts currently seen for pet foods
Shifts currently seen for multipacks for home paper products
Shifts currently seen for out-of-home hot beverages
Shifts currently seen for on-the-go foods (sandwiches, salads etc)
Shifts currently seen dairy-based products
Growth of pack formats in foods sector (‘000 tonnes)
Growth of pack formats in drinks sector (‘000 tonnes)
Growth of pack formats in healthcare sector (‘000 tonnes)
Growth of pack formats in cosmetics sector (‘000 tonnes)
Growth of pack formats in other consumer goods sector (‘000 tonnes)
Forecast growth of pack formats in europe (‘000 tonnes)
Forecast growth of pack formats in Middle East & Africa (‘000 tonnes)
Forecast growth of pack formats in North America (‘000 tonnes)
Forecast growth of pack formats in South & Central America (‘000 tonnes)
Forecast growth of pack formats in Asia Pacific (‘000 tonnes)
Forecasted value growth of consumer plastic flexibles across regions ($ million)
Forecasted value growth of consumer paper flexibles across regions ($ million)
Forecast growth of consumer product sectors in Europe (‘000 tonnes)
Forecast growth of consumer product sectors in North America (‘000 tonnes)
Forecast growth of consumer product sectors in South & Central America (‘000 tonnes)
Forecast growth of consumer product sectors in Asia Pacific (‘000 tonnes)
Forecast growth of consumer product sectors in Middle East & Africa (‘000 tonnes)
Forecasted value growth of consumer versus industrial packaging across regions, for plastic and paper flexibles ($ million)
