The Future of Sustainable Packaging: Long-term Strategic Forecasts to 2034

• By 2034 the packaging industry will be worth nearly $1.8 trillion, with a CAGR of 3.9% between 2028 and 2034
• Fibre-based packaging is the largest group, with 39.8% of total packaging material consumption in 2023; 37.4% is plastic, metal accounts for 11.9%, while glass makes up 4.6%.

Over the next decade, moulded pulp is expected to see the highest CAGR due to its wide range of applications and low EPR fees. Board will continue to be a popular choice due to its raw materials being renewable, the ease of recycling and low EPR fees. Flexible plastics are expected to continue to be popular due to high performance, low weight, low cost and expected investment in recycling infrastructure.

‘Sustainable packaging’ is developed using eco-design principles, minimising the environmental and social impacts at every stage of its lifecycle. Sustainable packaging has a lower carbon footprint from reduced, or eliminated, use of fossil raw materials. It maximises the use of post-consumer recycled content without compromising the opportunity for the materials used in its production to be utilized on multiple occasions, whether via reuse, recycling or composting.

Key Questions

• How will the EU’s Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) affect packaging design, material recovery, and brand owner strategies across the next 10 years?
• What will sustainable packaging look like in 10 years’ time?
• How will the market react to the competing claims of a new generation of fibre-based materials, PCR plastic formats, bioplastics, and packaging made from alternative fibre sources?
• Where and when will chemical (advanced) recycling become a viable option for cutting the carbon impact of packaging?

This report is essential to:

• Packaging raw material suppliers
• Packaging converters and manufacturers
• Retailers and brand owners

About the author

Tom Hallam has professional experience that dates back 23 years, initially working in the consumer products sector with Reckitt and for the last 15 years in forest products. Originally he was focused on market and consumer insight but he has been firmly focused on sustainability and innovation ever since. He has worked for four multi-national companies and has since been focused on delivering freelance projects via Brand Ethics consulting.

Executive summary 
Introduction and methodology 

• Introduction 
• Report objective 
• What is sustainable packaging? 
• Market segmentation 
  • Packaging materials 
  • Geographies 
• End-use segments 
• Methodology 
  • Data and forecasting methodology 
• Scope 
• Glossary 
• Acronyms used 

What is sustainable packaging? 

• Definition and market overview 
• Packaging lifecycle 
  • Raw materials 
  • Manufacturing 
  • Transport 
  • Packaging in-use 
  • End of life 
• What is the outlook for paper vs plastic packaging? 

Key market trends and drivers 

• Overview and key conclusions 
• Regional regulation and legislation 
  • European Union 
  • Europe – Local level legislation 
  • On-pack labelling 
  • OPRL (on-pack recycling logo) 
• Technological influences
  • Digital product passports (DPP) 
  • Other packaging data management software 

Packaging supplier and material developments 

• Overview and key conclusions 
• Paper and board 
  • Supplier consolidation 
  • Barrier-coated paper and board 
  • Paper-based transit packaging 
  • Other fibre-based and cellulose-based packaging 
• Flexible plastics 
  • Mono-material flexible plastics 
  • Circular Economy for Flexible Packaging – an industry-funded association driving circularity in flexible plastics 
• Rigid plastics 
  • PET, HDPE and PP 
• Bioplastics 
• Case study – Compostable Coalition UK (CCUK) 
• Alternative materials 
  • Seaweed based packaging materials 
  • Other plant-based materials 
  • Traceless Materials 
  • Fiberpac – miscanthus-based packaging 
  • Papierfabrik Meldorf GmbH – grass-based materials 
  • Plant Proteins 
• Materials from waste 
  • ReStalk 
  • Releaf 
  • HUID materials made from onion waste 
• Metal packaging 
  • Aluminium 
• Reusable and refillable packaging 
  • Reusable e-commerce packaging case studies 
  • Consumer products reuse case studies 

Packaging users 

• Overview and key conclusions 
• Voluntary commitments 
  • Ellen MacArthur Foundation (EMF) – Global Commitment 
• Brand owner mini case studies 
  • Food packaging 
  • Beverages 
  • Healthcare 
  • Personal care 
  • Other consumer 
  • E-commerce packaging 
• Retail packaging developments 
  • IKEA 
  • Tesco 
  • Aldi 
  • Iceland 

End-of-life solutions 

• Overview and key conclusions 
• Collection of packaging waste 
• Sorting packaging waste 
  • Enhanced optical recognition – digital watermarks and electronic tagging 
  • The impact of AI 
• Recycling packaging waste 
  • Overview 
  • Mechanical recycling 
  • Chemical (advanced) recycling 

Global market for sustainable packaging 

• Introduction 
• Global overview 
  • Europe 
  • France 
  • Germany 
  • Italy 
  • Spain 
  • United Kingdom 
  • Russia 
  • Poland 
  • Czech Republic 
  • Other Europe 
• North America 
  • US 
  • Canada 
  • Mexico 
• South & Central America 
  • Argentina 
  • Brazil 
  • Chile 
  • Other South & Central America 
• APAC 
  • Japan 
  • China 
  • India 
  • Indonesia 
  • Philippines 
  • South Korea 
  • Australia 
  • Other APAC 
• Middle East & Africa 
  • Türkiye 
  • South Africa 
  • Egypt 
  • Other Middle East & Africa 

List of Figures 

• Packaging lifecycle 
• Crude oil to plastic manufacturing process 
• Bioplastics value chain 
• SuperBin collection and sorting in South Korea 
• Global plastic waste by volume and region 
• Hierarchy of European legislative framework 
• Objectives of the European Green Deal 
• Plastic packaging recycling failure in Europe 
• The PPWR timeline 
• Henkel’s Persil laundry detergent 
• PPWR compliance case study 
• US EPR coverage and development 
• Eco-fee modulation: Coldseal Paper vs oPP 20/20 
• Microwave meal EPR calculation – paperboard vs PET 
• Fiorini International’s paper-based packaging, including PFAS free 
• OPRL labelling examples in the United Kingdom 
• Timeline of APCO’s legislative framework to reduce packaging waste 
• Digital product passport value chain 
• Packaging specification insights, using R-Cycle DPP system 
• Example output from the Recyda assessment tool 
• Digi-Cycle waste management app 
• UPM barrier-coated flexible paper packaging solutions 
• Alaska grease barrier-coated board 
• Jonsac’s paper e-commerce mailing bag variants 
• Mondi Advantage Stretch Wrap 
• Pulpac dry moulded pulp applications 
• The environmental credentials of 
• Stora Enso’s Formed Fibre packaging 
• Transcend Packaging’s fibre-based packaging solutions 
• Blue Ocean Closure fibre-based caps 
• Paptic’s end-use applications 
• VTT’s cellulose-based protective packaging 
• Forewood product range 
• Packnatur wood-based produce nets 
• Sulapac’s plastic-free personal care packaging 
• Breakdown of flexible plastics in key 
• Euro market recycling streams 
• Circular Economy for Flexible Packaging: Demand driven circular economy model 
• Circular Economy for Flexible Packaging forecasts on plastic recycling rates in Europe to 2030 
• UK FlexCollect pilot scheme 
• Constantia Flexibles mono-material flexible packaging solutions 
• Bobst’s OneBARRIER flexible packaging offer 
• Berry’s Sustane 
• Mechanically recycled flexible plastic 
• Sabic – branded products using chemically recycled PCR 
• Coca Cola and I Lohas brands in APAC, label-less and 100% rPET bottles 
• CJ weight reduction and colourless PET in South Korea 
• Coca Cola initiatives in the Philippines 
• Listerine wash-off sleeve and 30% rPET bottle 
• Unilever’s Magnum ice cream tub using 100% chemically recycled PP 
• Compostable Coalition development programme 
• Compostable packaging – key target applications 
• TIPA compostable films – examples of end-use applications 
• Properties of Futamura’s NatureFlex compostable film 
• Futamura NatureFlex used by German confectionery brand Cool 
• Vegware’s compostable packaging portfolio 
• Bioplastics recycling lifecycle 
• PLA recycling process 
• Notpla’s seaweed-based barrier coating for cartonboard packaging 
• Kelpi – seaweed as a ‘miracle crop’ 
• PlantSea’s packaging related applications 
• Zero Circle’s seaweed-based films 
• B‘Zeos seaweed-based pellets – a ‘drop in plastic substitute’ 
• Traceless Materials – plastic substitute from agri-waste 
• Fiberpac – miscanthus-infused fibrebased packaging 
• Papierfabrik Meldorf’s grass-based packaging materials 
• Xampla Morro – plant protein-based packaging materials 
• ReStalk’s raw material from agriwaste 
• Releaf ‘paper’ 
• HUID onion skin-based packaging material 
• Waste hierarchy 
• EMF 4 Reuse Models 
• German Packaging Act and Reuse Targets 
• CITEO’s ReUse initiative 
• RePack’s reusable e-com bag range 
• ReZip reusable e-com packaging lifecycle 
• ReZip packaging range 
• Hipli’s e-com packaging variants 
• Kiud’s ‘recommerce’ model 
• L’Oréal’s packaging targets to 2030 
• EMF Global Commitment signatories by type 
• EMF Global Commitment targets and progress 
• EMF Global Commitment – achievements against PCR targets 
• Kit Kat packaged in paper flow wrap 
• Quality Street paper-based chocolate packaging 
• Smarties paper-based chocolate packaging 
• Mars, Milky Way and Snickers paper flow wrap in Australia 
• Mondelez confectionery packaging using chemically recycled PCR 
• Compostable PHA barrier-coated cartonboard food containers for the microwave 
• Closed loop chemical recycling for Hetbahn food products 
• Chemically recycled PCR (up to 30%) for Hetbahn plastic tubs 
• DRS system for Hetbahn bowls 
• Johnnie Walker whiskey in a paper bottle 
• Twinings mono-material standup pouches 
• Rezorce mono-material PP carton lifecycle 
• Haleon mono-material blister packaging development 
• Examples of PCR use in Haleon healthcare packaging 
• Lush packaging using labels made from ‘ocean bound plastic’ 
• Wilkinson Sword’s ISCC+ certified bio-based PCR plastic packaging 
• Who Gives A Crap and Sainsbury’s own-label toilet tissue wrapped in paper 
• Henkel’s Pril washing detergent bottle and refill pouch 
• P&G’s use of paper-based packaging innovations 
• Lego’s paper-based pre-pack bags and cardboard ‘pick a brick’ box 
• Mattel’s Barbie toy using 70% ISCC+ certified chemically recycled plastic 
• Rema 1000 Maskinrens bottle made from recovered plastic fishing nets 
• Amazon’s evolution from FFP to SIOC 
• Mondi’s Protective Mailer used by Amazon in Europe 
• H&M’s shift from polybags to paper mailing bags 
• Zalando’s move to a paper-based packaging portfolio 
• An example of how IKEA is eliminating plastics from its packaging 
• IKEA’s EPS reduction programme 
• Tesco’s Packaging – preferred material and format guidelines 
• Some paper-based hi-cone replacements 
• Pringles’ 90% paper tube – in conjunction with Sonoco 
• Aldi’s flat wine bottles 
• Iceland’s plastic packaging elimination for own brand products 
• Main roadblocks hindering global plastic recycling 
• Segregated packaging waste collection 
• DRS collection point in Malta 
• Holy Grail 2.0 and Pellenc 
• Polytag DDRS 
• Greyparrot’s AI based sorting technology 
• Greyparrot’s packaging waste insight 
• Recycleye’s packaging waste sorting technology
• 4Evergreen’s strategy for 90% recycling of fibre-based packaging paper in Europe 
• Plastic recycling volumes in Europe 
• European mechanical recycling infrastructure 
• Plastic recycling volumes in Europe by plastic type 
• Plastic recycling capacity by key  European country 
• Plastic packaging recycling forecast for Europe 
• Chemical recycling by process 
• Chemical recycling processes by polymer type 
• Global plastic recycling forecasts by process 
• World age distribution forecasts to 2100 
• Comparison of demographic composition of the world’s largest nations 
• Forecast population pyramids for  China and India to 2050 
• World – circular packaging forecast, 2023–34 
• Europe – circular packaging forecast, 2023–34 

For each country: 

• Circular packaging forecast, 2023–34 

List of countries: 

• France 
• Germany 
• Italy 
• Spain 
• United Kingdom 
• Russia 
• Poland 
• Czech Republic 
• Other Europe 
• North America 
• US 
• Canada 
• Mexico 
• S&C America 
• Argentina 
• Brazil 
• Chile 
• Other S&C America 
• APAC 
• Japan 
• China 
• India 
• Indonesia 
• Philippines 
• South Korea 
• Australia 
• Other APAC 
• Middle East & Africa 
• Türkiye 
• South Africa 
• Egypt 
• Other MEA  

List of Tables 

• Forecasts for global circularity rates, by packaging material 2023–34 
• Key packaging trends, by end-use segment and packaging material, 2024 and forecast 2034 
• Timeline of recycling by material 
• World – packaging material consumption 2023–34 ($ million) 
• World – packaging material circularity forecasts (‘000 tonnes, million units) 
• Europe – economic and demographic indicators 
• Europe – packaging material consumption 2023–34 ($ million) 
• Europe – packaging material circularity forecasts (‘000 tonnes, million units) 

For each country: 

• Economic and demographic indicators 
• Packaging material consumption 2023–34 ($ million) 
• Packaging material circularity forecasts (‘000 tonnes, million units) 

List of countries: 

• France 
• Germany 
• Italy 
• Spain 
• UK 
• Russia 
• Poland 
• Czech Republic 
• Other Europe 
• North America – economic and demographic indicators 
• North America – packaging material consumption 2023–34 ($ million) 
• North America – packaging material circularity forecasts (‘000 tonnes, million units) 

For each country: 

• Economic and demographic indicators 
• Packaging material consumption 2023–34 ($ million) 
• Packaging material circularity forecasts (‘000 tonnes, million units) 

List of countries: 

• US 
• Canada 
• Mexico 
• S&C America – economic and demographic indicators 
• Total S&C America – packaging material consumption 2023–34 ($ million) 
• S&C America – packaging material circularity forecasts (‘000 tonnes, million units) 

For each country: 

• Economic and demographic indicators 
• Packaging material consumption 2023–34 ($ million) 
• Packaging material circularity forecasts (‘000 tonnes, million units) 

List of countries: 

• Argentina 
• Brazil 
• Chile 
• Other S&C America 
• APAC – economic and demographic indicators 
• APAC – packaging material consumption 2023–34 ($ million) 
• APAC – packaging material circularity forecasts (‘000 tonnes, million units) 

For each country: 

• Economic and demographic indicators 
• Packaging material consumption 2023–34 ($ million) 
• Packaging material circularity forecasts (‘000 tonnes, million units) 

List of countries: 

• Japan 
• China 
• India 
• Indonesia 
• Philippines 
• South Korea 
• Australia 
• Other APAC 
• Middle East & Africa – economic and demographic indicators 
• Middle East & Africa – packaging material consumption 2023–34 ($ million) 
• Middle East & Africa – packaging material circularity forecasts (‘000 tonnes, million units) 

For each country: 

• Economic and demographic indicators 
• Packaging material consumption 2023–34 ($ million) 
• Packaging material circularity forecasts (‘000 tonnes, million units) 

List of countries: 

• Türkiye 
• South Africa 
• Egypt 
• Other MEA